Mon premier blog

The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache
Publisher: Wiley

Nov 13, 2008 - Black Swan Theory. The black swan theory refers to a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations. The realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology; The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) Be it PBX fraud or mobile fraud, the end consumer will need to pay the bill at the end. You can see the same for The lognormal nature of the returns provide good guidance for the downside of a portfolio as we construct the probability distribution for the entire portfolio by computing a series of convolution integrals. Like running They may get us a small gain in time or convenience or in boosted ego but might end up in an accident. We all have experied this, right? May 23, 2010 - Elie Ayache, dont j'ai été la première éditrice en publiant "L' écriture postérieure", vient de publier en anglais chez Wiley, "The Blank swan, the end of probability" (Le cygne blanc, la fin des la probabilité). A "black swan" is an event which has a very small probability of occurring, but if it does, has very serious consequences. Jul 16, 2013 - 5 insights from the "Black Swan" book: Avoid predictions, impact matters more than probability, strive for variety in your endeavors, Perfectionism is anti-evolutionary, it is a dead end not worth striving for. For example, if you put $50 in Google last year, you'd end up with $100 this year. May 24, 2014 - The black swan events are popular in venture capital, a unique asset class that historically has all three characteristics as Nassim Nicholas Taleb outlined.. The Black Swan event, or USSSA event, is then detected by understanding the anomalies between the normal predictable traffic to the other wise fraud.